Wednesday, September 25, 2019

Electric Cars. Are They For Me?





When the Finance Minister, was making her maiden budget speech it was difficult to miss the focus on electric vehicles. By 2023 all 3 wheelers, by 2025 all 2 wheelers and by 2030 30% of all 4 wheelers plying on our streets would have to be electric. I tried to find out more about electric cars, took test drives, read more about them and evaluated them. 
Currently there are 3 cars in the market - The Hyundai Kona, the Mahindra E-Verito and the Tata Tigor. There is also the Mahindra E2O (a redesigned Reva) but it’s too small to be a family car. MG’s ZS EV is just around the corner. This is in sharp contrast to almost 400 cars and variants available currently with IC engine. But this set to change, more on that later.
Let’s look at my 3 key pillars for evaluating a car – drivability, peace of mind and cost.
Drivability: Electric cars so much fun to drive. The design of an electric car enables manufacturers to place batteries such as to achieve a relatively low center of gravity. This means that the car handles well and is stable at high speeds so you can throw it around the corners and it will stay firmly planted. The motor characteristically offers an almost instantaneous torque response which is linear – unlike ICE cars where peak torque is available only at a specified RPM range. The ‘pick-up’ is superb, acceleration is excellent, no gears to juggle and all this while being cocooned in total silence. Driving bliss!
Peace of Mind:
·     Range is the new dimension that has come into playToday electric cars have a range of 120 to 400kms on every chargeFor city commutes of say 50-100kms odd you should be sorted if you have basic charging infrastructure at home. You use the car during the day and charge at night… just like you would charge your smartphone. You need a dedicated parking place in which you can charge your car. An almost full charge takes between an hour to 15 hours to achieve - depending upon the type of charger. 
·     However you have to carefully plan those one-off weekend road trips to ensure your car doesn’t run out of juice. Today you take a refueling stop at the petrol pump and can be back on the road in minutes.  But even the fastest charging set-up takes about an hour to get to an almost full charge. This means you may have to time the car charging with your own breaks so that you have a relaxed lunch at a restaurant nearby or maybe take a nap while your car is charging up on a long road trip. It may be a tad faster if cars come with modular batteries with someone offering the service of simply replacing your batteries with the fully charged ones (as in Delhi for the e-rickshaws). How this pans out remains to be seen but ‘refueling’ your car may never be the same again.
·     Reliability: The drive train in an ICE car has over 2000 moving parts which includes engine and transmission components - whereas the drive train in an electric car has less than 100. So intuitively, electric cars are significantly more reliable than the ICE cars.
·     Safety:  With electric cars, not having a combustible fuel in the car itself seems like a big relief on safety. However electric cars have an array of large batteries on them and if not well isolated or protected, may have a tendency to explode. The matter of Samsung S6 Li-ON batteries exploding is fresh in our minds. There is also a recent episode of a Hyundai Kona catching fire due to unknown reasons. The electric auto industry has to do much more to quell that fear in the minds of consumers.
Cost of ownership:
·     Running Costs: This is where electric cars score truly over the regular ICE cars. At the current rate/ unit of electricity every KM of running an electric car is less than a rupee, whereas even the most fuel-efficient diesel car costs at least 4 times more. 
·     Maintenance: While new generation IC engines and transmission are extremely reliable, it gets even better with electric cars. The motor is largely maintenance-free with no messy oil & filter regimen. We still have Brakes, suspension, air conditioner, tires and everything to be maintained albeit at a much lower cost.
·     Resale Value: In India where even decades old vehicles prance about on the streets resale value is an important metric in evaluating the cost of ownership. While little is known of the resale value of electric cars (given they are relatively new on the scene), this parameter is not likely to bode well in their favor. The more reliable batteries last for 8 years odd before they lose their capacity or the ability to hold ‘power’ before needing replacement. And since batteries constitute a large part of the cost of the car, resale value will get calibrated accordingly. But keep in mind that if India pushes ahead with its stated agenda of moving to electric cars in a big way, your current car won’t have any takers either.
Overall cost: Currently the electric cars are clearly an expensive option for initial outlay. However, if you were to take a loan on the initial cost of the car, the EMIs you would pay + the running cost I suspect could be in the same range as an ICE car. The higher upfront cost (depending upon the car) may get evened out by the significantly lower running cost.
EVs are Green after all: But if you are one of those for whom, concern for the environment outweighs normal objective propositions, then the arguments of cost etc. are superfluous. There are 2 things however you need to know: 
·       Over 70% of the power generated in India is through thermal sources – coal, diesel, gas etc. Only around 30% is through clean & renewable sources like hydro, nuclear, solar, wind or bio-gas etc. So with EVs, we are just shifting the emissions from the cities to the power stations. (This is a not such a bad proposition, since the polluted air doesn’t get dissipated in dense concrete urban clusters when compared to power stations which are located in remote areas). We will increasingly get more energy from clean sources but till that happens electric cars are not necessarily as green as they are made out to be.
·       Each car has about half a ton of batteries (mainly LiON or NiMH) which are hardly recycled currently. These batteries are a serious challenge to dispose and upon damage give off toxic gases. Even the core ingredients of batteries - Nickel and Cobalt are finite resources and if not extracted responsibly can lead to reckless depletion and water pollution amongst other environmental consequences
With all the good and the not so good things EVs are here to say. There is clearly a shift towards EVs world over and manufacturers’ are doing their bit by dedicating a lot of research in improving safety, cost, battery capacities and convenience. India wants to be the ‘Detroit of electric vehicles’ and almost all the automakers are said to be bringing their EVs to India. Prominent amongst them being the Nissan Leaf, Renault Zoe, MG Motors eZS, Tata Altroz, E versions of Wagon R, KUV100 and XUV300 and even Audi Etron at the luxury end. Amongst Indian companies, Mahindra has taken big bets on electric mobility and are a company to watch out for. It won’t be surprising to see Mahindra taking over the mantle of an electric car leader, something that Maruti was when cars became mainstream in the 1980s. 
With reduction in GST, direct subsidy to buyers, free parking, free Toll, free registration, tax breaks, incentives for setting up charging infrastructure and several similar initiatives from the Central and state governments it’s only a matter of time before our traffic landscape changes.
And now the moot question. Should I buy an electric car now? 
You should, if you are environmentally conscious, want to be seen driving a Green number plate as a badge of honor and are not as concerned about the initial cost. For the rest: Just wait for some more time for the ecosystem to evolve  and for more options to be available or just have it as your second car. You won’t have to wait long anyways - but whenever you do take the plunge… you won’t regret one bit and that’s a promise!



 

Friday, September 6, 2019

Multiplexes are here to stay with glory !

Multiplexes are here to stay with glory !


Mukesh Ambani’s announcement last month on Jio’s plans to showcase the movies on the day of release has been creating waves. Customers have been predictably raving and multiplex owners are rattled or so is believed. The announcement did its job – created excitement for RILs Jio Fiber and RIL stock hit a high. But the multiplex stocks– PVR and INOX got beaten up riding on the fears. 
Speculations and sentiments aside, this is not the first time that obituaries of cinemas have been pre-maturely written. Nay sayers predicted curtains for cinemas when movies were available on VHS tapes, VCDs or DVDs and finally Blu-Rays. The quality of video and audio was significantly better each time and hence movie buffs would love the convenience of watching a movie at home, it was presumed. We also remember the cable operator offering ‘movie channels’ during the late 80’s on which latest pirated movies were shown. Then there were exclusive Movie based channels on Television – the likes of ZEE Cinema, Star Movies, HBO etc. Doomsday shrill got louder even then. This was sure to kill the habit of the movie going public to a cinema it was said.
And now with the advent of low cost internet, movies were available on-demand. At home – on demand… what else can movie lovers ask? This was thought of as the final nail in the proverbial coffin of cinemas. But no, cinemas have carved a space for themselves and continue to be patronized.
Even in the US, number of Netflix paid memberships grew from 38Mn million in 2014 to 58 million in 2018. However, despite this phenomenal growth of Netflix (and others too), the US added over 1500 screens in this period (taking the total to 41000) and the number of movie admissions didn’t drop. So people were watching more movies than before… but didn’t really move ‘away’ from their dose of cinema outings.
Anyone who surmises that movie going habits will die with the movie itself coming into homes is missing one key behavioral trait –visiting a cinema addresses a social need and is a very social activity. 
It’s an experience in itself – the outing, the mall which houses the cinema, the shopping, the popcorn, the company of friends, family, spouse, girlfriend (or boyfriend) and yes, sometimes the movie itself. The movie is not central to the experience – though it is important nevertheless. Haven’t we gone sometimes for a movie outing, knowing very well that the movie is not so great? We went for just ‘time pass’! 
And when the movie is known to be good, then of course the reasons get further amplified. You get to watch the movie undisturbed and without homely disruptions, in a dark ambience, in the company of lot of other people (a group of people laughing at jokes or holding their breath together during the climax scene is a feeling like no other) on a large embracing screen and immersed in loud hi-fidelity sound - divine. We have been to a cinema to watch the same movie more than once or sometimes after having watched it at our home TV. Why? ‘This movie is meant to be enjoyed in a cinema’ we tell ourselves. Sounds familiar? 
The Multiplex owners are realizing this and are moving from just exhibiting the movies to exhibiting and hospitality. The premium format screens like Insignia, Gold Class and similar offer high definition projection like 4K, Onyx etc., premium lounges, leather recliners and gourmet food with butler on call. This experience can’t be replicated on a large TV screen at home. Why else would one pay upto Rs 1800 sometimes for a movie outing.
Hence despite the plethora of options of watching a movie at home, cinema screens are thriving. Currently India has just about 10000 screens (~3000 Multiplex Screens and ~7000 Single screen cinemas) and growing. New International players like Cinepolis are entering the screens business in India and large domestic players are expanding fast. PVR itself has displayed optimism through its acquisition of SPI cinemas last year (which has presence in Southern India). 
But RJio is no pushover, they have delivered what they promised, almost always. This is where India’s status as movie production powerhouse comes into play. India is amongst the largest producer of movies in the world. We produce almost 2000 movies annually across languages and genres. This includes a lot of regional movies and special interest/ niche cinema. Some of these may not find a screen for a theatrical release as they would just be squeezed out of the theatres by big banners. These movies are very good in their own right and have niche audiences. Such movies can then get released on digital OTT platforms. This is a recent phenomenon and movies like Lipsstick Under My Burqa, Love Per Square Foot, Brij Mohan Amar Rahe, Rajma Chawal etc have regaled movie lovers without ever being released in theatres. For the ‘First Day First Show promise’ RJio is likely to procure select movies – both Bollywood and Regional for showcasing on their digital screen – Jio Cinema. This in itself is a great proposition. They might occasionally bring in movies from big banners or with popular star cast to create some buzz and preference for RJio.  It’s however unlikely that most of big budget mainstream popular cinema will find its way to RJios ‘First Day First Show’ promise. 
We will find out soon enough. But till then, can we watch Akshay Kumar’s ‘Mission Mangal’ over the weekend? Recliner seats please.